Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release. Yucatan lodge water and CONAPESCA rules — verify before you keep anything.
Mexico · Ascension Bay / Sian Ka'an
Permit are the hunt — wait for the next inch — this bay empties.
Yucatan flats. Bones, permit, and baby tarpon inside Sian Ka’an. Punta Allen is the village. Lodge water, biosphere rules. Tide is a modeled Caribbean clock — there is no NOAA gauge. Not Baja.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-09-09, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- ⚠ Mexico requires a CONAPESCA license. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water — verify before you fish.
Forecast
low confidence
Forecast brief for Wednesday, September 9. Back to this morning
Morning line
Ascension 6.3 on Wednesday, September 9. 6 mph ESE. Overcast. YOLO day is Saturday, August 29. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
low slack · -0.43 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From ESE · gust 12
Sky
31% rain
Clouds
Overcast
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
6% lit
Waning crescent
mid range · 6%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 0.9 ft
low slack
-0.43 ft modeled
Clock
Modeled M2
- LowWed 7:00 AM · -0.45
- HighWed 2:00 PM · 0.43
- LowWed 8:00 PM · -0.42
- HighThu 2:00 AM · 0.40
- LowThu 8:00 AM · -0.38
Mexico tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing. There is no NOAA gauge here.
Monthly YOLO day
Saturday, August 29 · 9.3
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · spring · tide range ~0.7 ft · wind to 8 mph · Rain · 29%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 6.7
Boca Paila
sand dropoff · public structure · mid
Named inlet north of Ascension. Permit and a tarpon on the dump. Public geography.
- — sand dropoff on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 5.5
Punta Allen / Ascension flats
hard flat · public structure · skinny
The village and the bay. Bones and permit. Sian Ka’an biosphere — lodge rules, not a freelance wade across the reserve.
- — hard flat on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin
When
Incoming water
9.7Wed 9:00 AM → Wed 3:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
9.4Wed 3:00 PM → Wed 10:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
8.3Wed 9:00 PM → Thu 4:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
9.7Thu 3:00 AM → Thu 10:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.7Thu 10:00 AM → Thu 4:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Launch and beach access
Lodge towns and cited marinas. CONAPESCA license. Biosphere and park water is not a freelance wade.
Punta Allen / Sian Ka’an
Sian Ka’an Biosphere / CONAPESCA
Village launch into Ascension Bay. Biosphere reserve. Lodge and park rules. CONAPESCA license.
Official source
Legal water
No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is low slack (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — Overcast. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
- — Wind 6 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
- — Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
5.5
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release on the Yucatan flats. Verify CONAPESCA.
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Off-season here.
Mexico: treat as C&R. Sian Ka’an / Ascension is biosphere water — lodge and CONAPESCA rules.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.
Incidental. Not why you booked Ascension or East Cape.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.
Incidental. Ciguatera is a real reason not to keep a big one.
Regs citedCONAPESCA recreational license · current CONAPESCA rules · rolls in 8 days. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water. Roosterfish is Baja, not the Gulf.