Tarpon
Megalops atlanticus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release. Yucatan lodge water and CONAPESCA rules — verify before you keep anything.
Mexico · Ascension Bay / Sian Ka'an
Permit should be the day — flood the Ascension flats off Punta Allen — bones first, permit if you earned it.
Yucatan flats. Bones, permit, and baby tarpon inside Sian Ka’an. Punta Allen is the village. Lodge water, biosphere rules. Tide is a modeled Caribbean clock — there is no NOAA gauge. Not Baja.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-07-22. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
- ⚠ Mexico requires a CONAPESCA license. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water — verify before you fish.
Tide + moon
low confidence
Forecast brief for Wednesday, July 22. Back to this morning
Morning line
Ascension 8.4 on Wednesday, July 22 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · 0.23 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge
Wind
OPEN-METEO
No wind reading
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Sky not in
Sky not in
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
54% lit
First quarter
neap range · 54%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.3 ft
incoming
0.23 ft modeled
Clock
Modeled M2
- LowWed 4:00 AM · -0.67
- HighWed 10:00 AM · 0.66
- LowWed 5:00 PM · -0.65
- HighWed 11:00 PM · 0.66
- LowThu 5:00 AM · -0.66
Mexico tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing. There is no NOAA gauge here.
Monthly YOLO day
Monday, August 31 · 9.3
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.0 ft · wind to 7 mph · Rain · 61%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 8.4
Punta Allen / Ascension flats
hard flat · public structure · skinny
The village and the bay. Bones and permit. Sian Ka’an biosphere — lodge rules, not a freelance wade across the reserve.
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin - 7.7
Boca Paila
sand dropoff · public structure · mid
Named inlet north of Ascension. Permit and a tarpon on the dump. Public geography.
- — sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit, Tarpon.
skiffflyspin
When
Incoming water
8.5Wed 8:00 AM → Wed 12:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
8.5Wed 12:00 PM → Wed 6:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
9.4Wed 6:00 PM → Thu 1:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
9.4Thu 12:00 AM → Thu 7:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
9.4Thu 6:00 AM → Thu 1:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Launch and beach access
Lodge towns and cited marinas. CONAPESCA license. Biosphere and park water is not a freelance wade.
Punta Allen / Sian Ka’an
Sian Ka’an Biosphere / CONAPESCA
Village launch into Ascension Bay. Biosphere reserve. Lodge and park rules. CONAPESCA license.
Official source
Legal water
No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.
No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — First quarter moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
8.4
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as catch-and-release on the Yucatan flats. Verify CONAPESCA.
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
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Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Mexico: treat as C&R. Sian Ka’an / Ascension is biosphere water — lodge and CONAPESCA rules.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Incidental. Not why you booked Ascension or East Cape.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Incidental. Ciguatera is a real reason not to keep a big one.
Regs citedCONAPESCA recreational license · current CONAPESCA rules · rolls in 7 days. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water. Roosterfish is Baja, not the Gulf.