On This Water

Bahamas · Abaco

Bonefish should be the day — the Marls and Cherokee on foot, or the ocean cays by skiff.

Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.

  • This brief is for 2027-02-11. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
8.7OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, February 11. Back to this morning

Morning line

Abaco 8.7 on Thursday, February 11 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-2.0-1.0-0.01.02.0LHLHLHLHThu 7 AMFri 7 AMSat 7 AMSun 7 AM
incoming · 1.14 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

26% lit

Waxing crescent

mid range · 26%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 2.6 ft

incoming

1.14 ft modeled

Clock

Modeled M2

  • LowThu 3:00 AM · -1.21
  • HighThu 9:00 AM · 1.26
  • LowThu 3:00 PM · -1.29
  • HighThu 9:00 PM · 1.32
  • LowFri 3:00 AM · -1.33

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 9.2

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~2.1 ft · wind to 16 mph · Clouds · 55%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Cherokee Sound

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    8.4

    Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    wadeskifffly
  • The Marls

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.7

    Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffwadefly
  • Great Guana ocean reef / bar

    sand dropoff · field manual · mid

    7.7

    Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffspinfly
  • Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks

    creek bight · field manual · mid

    7.1

    Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.

    • creek bight on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Thu 8:00 AMThu 11:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Thu 10:00 AMThu 5:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.1

    Thu 4:00 PMThu 11:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.0

    Thu 10:00 PMFri 5:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Fri 4:00 AMFri 11:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: catch-and-release.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.