On This Water

Bahamas · Abaco

Bonefish should be the day — the Sea of Abaco edges as they empty.

Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.

  • This brief is for 2027-01-22. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
8.1OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Friday, January 22. Back to this morning

Morning line

Abaco 8.1 on Friday, January 22 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.3-0.60.00.71.3HLHLHLHLFri 7 AMSat 7 AMSun 7 AMMon 7 AM
outgoing · -0.44 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

100% lit

Full

spring range · 100%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.4 ft

outgoing

-0.44 ft modeled

Clock

Modeled M2

  • HighFri 3:00 AM · 0.70
  • LowFri 10:00 AM · -0.69
  • HighFri 4:00 PM · 0.68
  • LowFri 10:00 PM · -0.66
  • HighSat 5:00 AM · 0.67

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 9.2

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~2.1 ft · wind to 16 mph · Clouds · 55%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks

    creek bight · field manual · mid

    7.5

    Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.

    • creek bight on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Great Guana ocean reef / bar

    sand dropoff · field manual · mid

    7.4

    Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffspinfly
  • The Marls

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.0

    Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffwadefly
  • Cherokee Sound

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.0

    Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    wadeskifffly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    8.5

    Fri 8:00 AMFri 12:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Fri 11:00 AMFri 6:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.5

    Fri 5:00 PMSat 12:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    7.4

    Sat 12:00 AMSat 7:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Sat 6:00 AMSat 1:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Full moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: catch-and-release.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.