On This Water

Bahamas · Abaco

Bonefish should be the day — the Sea of Abaco edges as they empty.

Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.

  • This brief is for 2026-12-24, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
8.3OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, December 24. Back to this morning

Morning line

Abaco 8.3 on Thursday, December 24. 12 mph ESE. Clear. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.4-0.70.00.71.5HLHLHLHLThu 7 AMFri 7 AMSat 7 AMSun 7 AM
outgoing · -0.22 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW12MPH

From ESE · gust 13

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clear

Clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

100% lit

Full

spring range · 100%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.4 ft

outgoing

-0.22 ft modeled

Clock

Modeled M2

  • HighThu 4:00 AM · 0.68
  • LowThu 11:00 AM · -0.66
  • HighThu 5:00 PM · 0.68
  • LowThu 11:00 PM · -0.68
  • HighFri 6:00 AM · 0.69

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks

    creek bight · field manual · mid

    7.5

    Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.

    • creek bight on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Great Guana ocean reef / bar

    sand dropoff · field manual · mid

    7.4

    Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffspinfly
  • The Marls

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    7.0

    Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffwadefly
  • Cherokee Sound

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.0

    Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    wadeskifffly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Thu 8:00 AMThu 12:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    10.0

    Thu 12:00 PMThu 7:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.1

    Thu 6:00 PMFri 1:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.1

    Fri 12:00 AMFri 7:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    10.0

    Fri 7:00 AMFri 2:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Clear. Sky is workable.
  • Wind 12 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Full moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

4.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: catch-and-release.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.