On This Water

Bahamas · Abaco

Bonefish are the hunt — verify which creeks are actually open, then wait for water.

Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.

  • This brief is for 2026-10-22. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
7.3OF 10

Tide + moon

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, October 22. Back to this morning

Morning line

Abaco 7.3 on Thursday, October 22 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.6-0.80.00.81.6LHLHLHLHThu 8 AMFri 8 AMSat 8 AMSun 8 AM
high slack · -1.18 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

86% lit

Waxing gibbous

mid range · 86%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 2.3 ft

high slack

-1.18 ft modeled

Clock

Modeled M2

  • LowThu 8:00 AM · -1.18
  • HighThu 2:00 PM · 1.16
  • LowThu 8:00 PM · -1.13
  • HighFri 2:00 AM · 1.09
  • LowFri 8:00 AM · -1.03

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.7

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast — and it is a copper day. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~2.1 ft · wind to 12 mph · Clouds · 10%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Cherokee Sound

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.1

    Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    wadeskifffly
  • Great Guana ocean reef / bar

    sand dropoff · field manual · mid

    6.6

    Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.

    • sand dropoff on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffspinfly
  • The Marls

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    6.4

    Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffwadefly
  • Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks

    creek bight · field manual · mid

    6.0

    Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.

    • creek bight on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Thu 9:00 AMThu 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.1

    Thu 3:00 PMThu 10:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.0

    Thu 9:00 PMFri 4:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Fri 3:00 AMFri 10:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Fri 9:00 AMFri 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Why — and who

  • Tide is high slack (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Waxing gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

5.5

Thermal window

64°92°

Present, not peak.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

5.5

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak.

Bahamas: catch-and-release.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.5

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.5

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.