Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Bahamas: catch-and-release.
Bahamas · Abaco
Permit should be the day — the Sea of Abaco edges as they empty.
Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-09-10. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
Tide + moon
low confidence
Forecast brief for Thursday, September 10. Back to this morning
Morning line
Abaco 7.8 on Thursday, September 10 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
outgoing · -0.61 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge
Wind
OPEN-METEO
No wind reading
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Sky not in
Sky not in
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
2% lit
Waning crescent
spring range · 2%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.6 ft
outgoing
-0.61 ft modeled
Clock
Modeled M2
- HighThu 3:00 AM · 0.86
- LowThu 9:00 AM · -0.81
- HighThu 4:00 PM · 0.79
- LowThu 10:00 PM · -0.76
- HighFri 4:00 AM · 0.72
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Monthly YOLO day
Tuesday, August 25 · 9.7
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast — and it is a copper day. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~2.1 ft · wind to 12 mph · Clouds · 8%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 7.4
Great Guana ocean reef / bar
sand dropoff · field manual · mid
Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.
- — sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit.
skiffspinfly - 7.0
Cherokee Sound
hard flat · public structure · skinny
Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.
- — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit.
wadeskifffly - 6.8
Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks
creek bight · field manual · mid
Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.
- — creek bight on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
skiffflyspin - 6.3
The Marls
hard flat · field manual · skinny
Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.
- — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
skiffwadefly
When
Outgoing water
9.4Thu 8:00 AM → Thu 11:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
9.1Thu 11:00 AM → Thu 6:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
9.1Thu 5:00 PM → Fri 12:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
8.0Thu 11:00 PM → Fri 6:00 AM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
9.4Fri 5:00 AM → Fri 12:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Why — and who
- — Tide is outgoing (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — Waning crescent moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
6.6
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.
Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 8 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.