On This Water

Bahamas · Abaco

Permit should be the day — the Marls and Cherokee on foot, or the ocean cays by skiff.

Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.

  • This brief is for 2026-08-31, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
6.4OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Monday, August 31. Back to this morning

Morning line

Abaco 6.4 on Monday, August 31. 10 mph E. Rain · 15%. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.9-1.00.01.02.0LHLHLHLHMon 8 AMTue 8 AMWed 8 AMThu 8 AM
incoming · 0.94 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW10MPH

From E · gust 11

Sky

15% rain

Rain

Rain · 15%

Sight water goes blind. A marsh still fishes a shower.

Moon

87% lit

Waning gibbous

mid range · 87%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 2.2 ft

incoming

0.94 ft modeled

Clock

Modeled M2

  • LowMon 3:00 AM · -0.94
  • HighMon 9:00 AM · 1.00
  • LowMon 3:00 PM · -1.05
  • HighMon 9:00 PM · 1.09
  • LowTue 3:00 AM · -1.12

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.7

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast — and it is a copper day. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~2.1 ft · wind to 12 mph · Clouds · 8%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

  • Cherokee Sound

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.7

    Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Rain blinds skinny water. Sight dies before the fish do.
    • In-play: Permit.
    wadeskifffly
  • Great Guana ocean reef / bar

    sand dropoff · field manual · mid

    6.5

    Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit.
    skiffspinfly
  • The Marls

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    6.1

    Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • Rain blinds skinny water. Sight dies before the fish do.
    skiffwadefly
  • Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks

    creek bight · field manual · mid

    6.0

    Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.

    • creek bight on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    skiffflyspin

When

  • Incoming water

    8.8

    Mon 8:00 AMMon 11:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    7.4

    Mon 10:00 AMMon 5:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Mon 4:00 PMMon 11:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Mon 10:00 PMTue 5:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Tue 4:00 AMTue 11:00 AM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Rain · 15%. Sight water goes blind. Wait it out or switch to stained marsh.
  • Wind 10 mph E. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: catch-and-release.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

4.8

Thermal window

64°92°

Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.