Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
Present, not peak.
Bahamas: catch-and-release.
Bahamas · Abaco
Permit are the hunt — sit the remaining Marls guts.
Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-08-15, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
Forecast
low confidence
Forecast brief for Saturday, August 15. Back to this morning
Morning line
Abaco 6.9 on Saturday, August 15. 4 mph SSE. Clear. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
low slack · 0.79 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From SSE · gust 7
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Clear
Clear
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
5% lit
Waxing crescent
mid range · 5%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.8 ft
low slack
0.79 ft modeled
Clock
Modeled M2
- HighSat 8:00 AM · 0.79
- LowSat 2:00 PM · -0.84
- HighSat 8:00 PM · 0.89
- LowSun 2:00 AM · -0.92
- HighSun 9:00 AM · 0.94
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Monthly YOLO day
Tuesday, August 25 · 9.7
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast — and it is a copper day. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~2.1 ft · wind to 12 mph · Clouds · 8%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
- 6.2
Great Guana ocean reef / bar
sand dropoff · field manual · mid
Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.
- — sand dropoff on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
- — In-play: Permit.
skiffspinfly - 5.6
Cherokee Sound
hard flat · public structure · skinny
Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.
- — hard flat on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
- — In-play: Permit.
wadeskifffly - 5.2
Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks
creek bight · field manual · mid
Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.
- — creek bight on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
skiffflyspin - 4.9
The Marls
hard flat · field manual · skinny
Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.
- — hard flat on a low slack tide is a secondary match.
skiffwadefly
When
Outgoing water
9.1Sat 9:00 AM → Sat 4:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Incoming water
10.0Sat 3:00 PM → Sat 10:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
10.0Sat 9:00 PM → Sun 4:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
10.0Sun 3:00 AM → Sun 10:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Outgoing water
7.8Sun 10:00 AM → Sun 5:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Why — and who
- — Tide is low slack (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — Clear. Sky is workable.
- — Wind 4 mph SSE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
- — Waxing crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
5.5
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
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Off-season here.
Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.
Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.
Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.
Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 8 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.