Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
—
In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Bahamas: catch-and-release.
Bahamas · Abaco
Permit should be the day — the Marls and Cherokee on foot, or the ocean cays by skiff.
Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-07-20, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
- Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
- No NDBC on this desk
- Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
Forecast
low confidence
Forecast brief for Monday, July 20. Back to this morning
Morning line
Abaco 6.9 on Monday, July 20. 9 mph W. Overcast. YOLO day is Wednesday, August 26. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
incoming · 0.49 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.
Wind
OPEN-METEO
From W · gust 9
Buoy
No station
None
No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Clouds
Overcast
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
33% lit
Waxing crescent
neap range · 33%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 2.8 ft
incoming
0.49 ft modeled
Coast
No live coast layer
Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.
Clock
Modeled M2
- LowMon 4:00 AM · -1.31
- HighMon 10:00 AM · 1.32
- LowMon 5:00 PM · -1.33
- HighMon 11:00 PM · 1.37
- LowTue 5:00 AM · -1.41
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Monthly YOLO day
Wednesday, August 26
Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast — and it is a copper day. waxing gibbous · spring · tide range ~1.8 ft · wind to 14 mph · Clouds · 15%
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 6.7
Cherokee Sound
hard flat · public structure · skinny
Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit.
wadeskifffly - 6.7
Great Guana ocean reef / bar
sand dropoff · field manual · mid
Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.
- — sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Permit.
skiffspinfly - 6.2
Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks
creek bight · field manual · mid
Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.
- — creek bight on a incoming tide is a classic match.
skiffflyspin - 6.1
The Marls
hard flat · field manual · skinny
Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.
- — hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
skiffwadefly
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Incoming water
8.8Mon 8:00 AM → Mon 12:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Outgoing water
8.8Mon 11:00 AM → Mon 6:00 PM
Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.
Last light · incoming
9.7Mon 6:00 PM → Tue 1:00 AM
Last light on incoming water.
First light · outgoing
9.7Tue 12:00 AM → Tue 7:00 AM
First light on outgoing water.
First light · incoming
9.7Tue 6:00 AM → Tue 1:00 PM
First light on incoming water.
Why — and who
- — Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — Overcast. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
- — Wind 9 mph W. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
- — Waxing crescent moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
8.4
Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
—
Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
—
Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.
Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.
Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.