On This Water

Bahamas · Abaco

Bonefish should be the day — verify which creeks are actually open, then wait for water.

Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.

  • This brief is for 2026-04-04, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
  • No NDBC on this desk
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
6.7OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Saturday, April 4. Back to this morning

Morning line

Abaco 6.7 on Saturday, April 4. 5 mph E. Mostly clear. YOLO day is Wednesday, August 26. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.8-0.90.00.91.8HLHLHLHLSat 8 AMSun 8 AMMon 8 AMTue 8 AM
high slack · 0.76 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW5MPH

From E · gust 7

Buoy

No station

None

No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

95% lit

Waning gibbous

spring range · 95%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.8 ft

high slack

0.76 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

Modeled M2

  • HighSat 7:00 AM · 0.77
  • LowSat 2:00 PM · -0.82
  • HighSat 8:00 PM · 0.87
  • LowSun 2:00 AM · -0.91
  • HighSun 8:00 AM · 0.93

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Monthly YOLO day

Wednesday, August 26

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast — and it is a copper day. waxing gibbous · spring · tide range ~1.8 ft · wind to 14 mph · Clouds · 15%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Great Guana ocean reef / bar

    sand dropoff · field manual · mid

    6.4

    Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.

    • sand dropoff on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffspinfly
  • Cherokee Sound

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.2

    Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    wadeskifffly
  • Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks

    creek bight · field manual · mid

    5.8

    Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.

    • creek bight on a high slack tide is a secondary match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • The Marls

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    5.5

    Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.

    • hard flat on a high slack tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffwadefly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Sat 9:00 AMSat 4:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Last light · incoming

    9.4

    Sat 3:00 PMSat 10:00 PM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • Last light · outgoing

    8.3

    Sat 9:00 PMSun 4:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    9.7

    Sun 3:00 AMSun 10:00 AM

    First light on incoming water.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Sun 10:00 AMSun 5:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Why — and who

  • Tide is high slack (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 5 mph E. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waning gibbous moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

7.3

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

7.3

Thermal window

66°92°

In peak season for this water.

Bahamas: catch-and-release.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.5

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.