Bonefish
Albula vulpes
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.
Bahamas · Abaco
Bonefish should be the day — the Sea of Abaco edges as they empty.
Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.
- ⚠ This brief is for 2026-03-16. No wind forecast that far out — score is tide, moon, and season. Not a copper day.
- Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
- No NDBC on this desk
- Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
Tide + moon
low confidence
Forecast brief for Monday, March 16. Back to this morning
Morning line
Abaco 8.6 on Monday, March 16 — tide, moon, and season only. No wind forecast that far out. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.
outgoing · -0.90 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.
Wind
OPEN-METEO
No wind reading
Buoy
No station
None
No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.
Sky
OPEN-METEO
Sky not in
Sky not in
A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.
Moon
5% lit
Waning crescent
mid range · 5%
Water
No gauge
Water
—
Today’s range 1.9 ft
outgoing
-0.90 ft modeled
Coast
No live coast layer
Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.
Clock
Modeled M2
- LowMon 9:00 AM · -0.95
- HighMon 3:00 PM · 0.92
- LowMon 9:00 PM · -0.88
- HighTue 3:00 AM · 0.82
- LowTue 10:00 AM · -0.79
Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.
Next two weeks
Pulling the 14-day strip…
Where
This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.
- 8.1
Great Guana ocean reef / bar
sand dropoff · field manual · mid
Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.
- — sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
skiffspinfly - 7.7
Cherokee Sound
hard flat · public structure · skinny
Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.
- — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
wadeskifffly - 7.5
Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks
creek bight · field manual · mid
Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.
- — creek bight on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
- — In-play: Bonefish.
skiffflyspin - 7.0
The Marls
hard flat · field manual · skinny
Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.
- — hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
- — In-play: Bonefish.
skiffwadefly
When
When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.
Outgoing water
9.4Mon 8:00 AM → Mon 11:00 AM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Incoming water
9.4Mon 10:00 AM → Mon 5:00 PM
Moving water in the right part of the day.
Last light · outgoing
9.1Mon 4:00 PM → Mon 11:00 PM
Last light on outgoing water.
Last light · incoming
8.0Mon 10:00 PM → Tue 5:00 AM
Last light on incoming water.
First light · outgoing
9.4Tue 5:00 AM → Tue 12:00 PM
First light on outgoing water.
Why — and who
- — Tide is outgoing (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
- — Waning crescent moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.
8.4
Permit
Trachinotus falcatus
Thermal window
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In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Bahamas: catch-and-release.
Great barracuda
Sphyraena barracuda
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.
Jack crevalle
Caranx hippos
Thermal window
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Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.
Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.
Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.