On This Water

Bahamas · Abaco

Bonefish should be the day — the Marls and Cherokee on foot, or the ocean cays by skiff.

Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.

  • This brief is for 2026-02-26, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
  • No NDBC on this desk
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
7.3OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Thursday, February 26. Back to this morning

Morning line

Abaco 7.3 on Thursday, February 26. 4 mph E. Partly cloudy. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.9-0.9-0.00.91.8LHLHLHLHThu 7 AMFri 7 AMSat 7 AMSun 7 AM
incoming · -0.37 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW4MPH

From E · gust 7

Buoy

No station

None

No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Partly cloudy

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

71% lit

Waxing gibbous

neap range · 71%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 2.7 ft

incoming

-0.37 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

Modeled M2

  • LowThu 5:00 AM · -1.37
  • HighThu 12:00 PM · 1.36
  • LowThu 6:00 PM · -1.35
  • HighFri 12:00 AM · 1.34
  • LowFri 6:00 AM · -1.31

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Great Guana ocean reef / bar

    sand dropoff · field manual · mid

    7.4

    Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.

    • sand dropoff on a incoming tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffspinfly
  • Cherokee Sound

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    7.3

    Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    wadeskifffly
  • Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks

    creek bight · field manual · mid

    6.8

    Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.

    • creek bight on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • The Marls

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    6.7

    Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.

    • hard flat on a incoming tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffwadefly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Incoming water

    9.7

    Thu 8:00 AMThu 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Last light · outgoing

    9.4

    Thu 1:00 PMThu 8:00 PM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • Last light · incoming

    9.4

    Thu 7:00 PMFri 2:00 AM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • First light · outgoing

    9.7

    Fri 1:00 AMFri 8:00 AM

    First light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    9.7

    Fri 7:00 AMFri 2:00 PM

    First light on incoming water.

Why — and who

  • Tide is incoming (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Partly cloudy. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 4 mph E. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing gibbous moon — neap tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: catch-and-release.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (incoming) matches how they hunt.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.