On This Water

Bahamas · Abaco

Bonefish should be the day — the Sea of Abaco edges as they empty.

Sea of Abaco, Marls, Cherokee, the ocean cays. Wadeable Marls and skiff water both. Rebuilt after Dorian — verify which creeks and lodges are actually running.

  • This brief is for 2026-02-18, not this morning. Wind is a forecast. Observed water versus the table is a today-only instrument.
  • Tide · modeled — no NOAA gauge
  • No NDBC on this desk
  • Sargassum check failed — not all-clear
7.5OF 10

Forecast

low confidence

Forecast brief for Wednesday, February 18. Back to this morning

Morning line

Abaco 7.5 on Wednesday, February 18. 5 mph ESE. Mostly clear. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-1.6-0.80.00.81.7HLHLHLHLWed 7 AMThu 7 AMFri 7 AMSat 7 AM
outgoing · 0.26 ft · drag or hover for the clockModeled M2 clock — no NOAA gauge on this water. Not a buoy.

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESW5MPH

From ESE · gust 7

Buoy

No station

None

No honest NDBC or C-MAN near this water. Do not invent a buoy.

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Clouds

Mostly clear

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

2% lit

Waxing crescent

spring range · 2%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.6 ft

outgoing

0.26 ft modeled

Coast

No live coast layer

Sargassum check failed. Not a GPS pin. Not all-clear.

Clock

Modeled M2

  • HighWed 6:00 AM · 0.70
  • LowWed 12:00 PM · -0.73
  • HighWed 6:00 PM · 0.76
  • LowThu 1:00 AM · -0.78
  • HighThu 7:00 AM · 0.83

Bahamas tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing.

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

This pip is that mark on this tide — not the day on the ring.

  • Great Guana ocean reef / bar

    sand dropoff · field manual · mid

    7.8

    Nipper's sits on the dune above one of the prettier reefs. The bar is intel. The fish are on the ocean side.

    • sand dropoff on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Permit, Bonefish.
    skiffspinfly
  • Little Harbour / south Abaco creeks

    creek bight · field manual · mid

    7.3

    Pete's Pub is the bronze-foundry bar. The creeks behind it are the water.

    • creek bight on a outgoing tide is a classic match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffflyspin
  • Cherokee Sound

    hard flat · public structure · skinny

    6.7

    Classic wade. Ocean influence. Wind is the whole problem.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish, Permit.
    wadeskifffly
  • The Marls

    hard flat · field manual · skinny

    6.1

    Wadeable, mangrove, skinny. The Abaco classroom. Verify post-Dorian access.

    • hard flat on a outgoing tide is a workable match.
    • In-play: Bonefish.
    skiffwadefly

When

When is moving water in a good hour — not the day. First light and last light are named when the clock is the story. Today’s ring mixes the best mark, the lead fish, and the best window, then taxes the sky. A strong incoming can sit under a weak day if the wind or the fish is off. Calendar cells are a third recipe: range, moon, and the day’s forecast.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Wed 8:00 AMWed 2:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Last light · incoming

    9.4

    Wed 1:00 PMWed 8:00 PM

    Last light on incoming water.

  • Last light · outgoing

    9.4

    Wed 7:00 PMThu 2:00 AM

    Last light on outgoing water.

  • First light · incoming

    9.7

    Thu 2:00 AMThu 9:00 AM

    First light on incoming water.

  • Outgoing water

    9.7

    Thu 8:00 AMThu 3:00 PM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Why — and who

  • Tide is outgoing (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Mostly clear. Clouds steal the window on bones and permit.
  • Wind 5 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • Waxing crescent moon — spring tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

8.4

Thermal window

64°92°

In peak season for this water. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: treat as C&R. Flats licensing has been tightening — verify before you wade.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

6.6

Thermal window

66°92°

Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Bahamas: catch-and-release.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Present, not peak. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Treat big cuda as catch-and-release. Not why you booked the flat.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

4.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. Off-season here. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Treat as incidental. Not why you booked the flat.

Regs citedBahamas flats and bonefish rules · current Bahamas guidance · rolls in 7 days. Catch-and-release is the culture on the bonefish flats. No NOAA gauge. No invented holes.