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Florida · Lower Keys / Key West

Permit are the hunt — the oceanside wrecks and the falling contentment flats. Heat is the clock — first light or last light.

Marquesas, Harbor Key, oceanside wrecks, the contentment of long runs. Permit and tarpon country. Summer showers can switch a flat on once it clears.

  • ⚠ Extreme water temperature. Fish stress quickly — keep them wet, or don't boat them.
  • ⚠ Thunderstorms in the forecast. Lightning is a stay-tied call. The score is not a safety brief.
  • ⚠ Snook are typically closed to harvest on the SE/Atlantic coast in this window. Verify FWC.
3.9OF 10

Today

high confidence

Morning line

Key West 3.9 this morning. 4 mph ESE. Thunderstorms · 10%. Wind versus the table: +0.3 ft. YOLO day is Monday, August 31. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.00.61.21.92.5LHLHLHLHNOWSun 8 PMMon 8 PMTue 8 PMWed 8 PMThu 8 PM
outgoing · 0.96 ftNOAA hourly · ft MLLW

Wind

NOAA

NESW4MPH

From ESE · gust 6

Sky

10% rain

Storms

Thunderstorms · 10%

Lightning is a stay-tied call.

Moon

91% lit

Waxing gibbous

mid range · 91%

Water

NOAA 8724580

Water

91.0°

48°92°

Today’s range 1.7 ft

outgoing

0.96 ft MLLW

Wind vs table

Observed − predicted

+0.25 ft

Observed minus predicted. Read the water, not just the printout.

Clock

NOAA 8724580

  • LowTue 1:52 AM · 0.85
  • HighTue 8:37 AM · 2.02
  • LowTue 3:28 PM · 0.28
  • HighTue 10:02 PM · 1.33
  • LowWed 2:38 AM · 0.78

Monthly YOLO day

Monday, August 31 · 9.1

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waning gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.7 ft · wind to 10 mph · Thunderstorms · 55%

Stay or drive · Key West vs Boca GrandeOpen the calendarMorning dispatch

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

No marks match this method on this water.

When

  • Outgoing water

    8.6

    Tue 1:00 AM → Tue 4:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    8.6

    Tue 3:00 AM → Tue 10:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    6.3

    Tue 10:00 AM → Tue 5:00 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    8.6

    Tue 5:00 PM → Wed 12:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    8.6

    Tue 11:00 PM → Wed 4:00 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

County and state ramps near this water. FKNMS no-take is Keys-only, on the legal list.

  • Garrison Bight / Key West public ramps

    City of Key West

    The Lower Keys door. Marquesas is a weather-window run from here.

    Official source

Legal water

NOAA FKNMS management zones — Sanctuary Preservation Areas, Ecological Reserves, Research-Only.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • — Tide is outgoing from NOAA.
  • — Observed water is close to the astronomical prediction — the table is telling the truth today.
  • — Water 91.0°F. Heat is the locator: early, late, deeper.
  • — Thunderstorms · 10%. Lightning is a stay-tied call.
  • — Wind 4 mph ESE. Castable. Sight-fishing is on if the sun is out.
  • — Waxing gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Hogfish

Lachnolaimus maximus

7.0

Thermal window

91.0°

66°90°

In peak season for this water. Water 91°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: Atlantic and Gulf bags differ. Monroe County is tighter. Fork-length minimum. Verify FWC.

Yellowtail snapper

Ocyurus chrysurus

7.0

Thermal window

91.0°

66°90°

In peak season for this water. Water 91°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 12 in total length, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Tarpon

Megalops atlanticus

5.2

Thermal window

91.0°

68°94°

Present, not peak. Water 91°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release. Fish over 40 in must stay in the water. One harvest tag/year only for a potential IGFA record.

Permit

Trachinotus falcatus

5.2

Thermal window

91.0°

66°92°

Present, not peak. Water 91°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: hook-and-line. Special Permit Zone (Keys) is tighter than the rest of the state — typically C&R. Verify FWC.

Mutton snapper

Lutjanus analis

5.2

Thermal window

91.0°

66°90°

Present, not peak. Water 91°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: typically 18 in, inside the snapper aggregate. Verify FWC.

Bonefish

Albula vulpes

3.4

Thermal window

91.0°

64°92°

Off-season here. Water 91°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Florida: catch-and-release only, hook-and-line only.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

91.0°

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. Water 91°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Still, do not leave a pile.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

91.0°

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water. Water 91°F is the hot edge for this fish. This tide stage (outgoing) matches how they hunt.

Generally unregulated. Ciguatera risk rises with size. Do not keep a big one for the table.

Regs citedFWC saltwater recreational · current FWC regional rules · rolls in 8 days. Snook closures are regional. Boca Grande is not Jupiter. Verify FWC before you keep one.