On This Water

Mexico · Ascension Bay / Sian Ka'an

Mahi-mahi should be the day — wait for the next inch — this bay empties.

Yucatan flats. Bones, permit, and baby tarpon inside Sian Ka’an. Punta Allen is the village. Lodge water, biosphere rules. Tide is a modeled Caribbean clock — there is no NOAA gauge. Not Baja.

  • Mexico requires a CONAPESCA license. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water — verify before you fish.
6.6OF 10

Today

medium confidence

Morning line

Ascension 6.6 this morning. wind not in yet. YOLO day is Tuesday, August 25. Scores are 1–10, not a bite.

Mail it
-0.7-0.3-0.00.30.7HLHLHLHLNOWMon 7 PMTue 7 PMWed 7 PMThu 7 PM
low slack · 0.47 ftModeled M2 · not a gauge

Wind

OPEN-METEO

NESWMPH

No wind reading

Sky

OPEN-METEO

Sky not in

Sky not in

A 20% shower chance is not a cancel. A soaker is.

Moon

91% lit

Waxing gibbous

mid range · 91%

Water

No gauge

Water

48°92°

Today’s range 1.0 ft

low slack

0.47 ft modeled

Clock

Modeled M2

  • HighTue 1:20 AM · 0.49
  • LowTue 7:20 AM · -0.48
  • HighTue 1:20 PM · 0.46
  • LowTue 7:20 PM · -0.44
  • HighWed 1:20 AM · 0.41

Mexico tides are modeled from lunar M2. Use them for windows, not a bar crossing. There is no NOAA gauge here.

Monthly YOLO day

Tuesday, August 25 · 9.5

Best remaining dry day this month with a real wind forecast. waxing gibbous · mid · tide range ~1.0 ft · wind to 9 mph · Rain · 49%

Next two weeks

Pulling the 14-day strip…

Where

No marks match this method on this water.

When

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Tue 2:20 AMTue 9:20 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Incoming water

    8.5

    Tue 8:20 AMTue 3:20 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Tue 2:20 PMTue 9:20 PM

    Water is moving, but the clock is against you — heat or dark.

  • Incoming water

    9.4

    Tue 9:20 PMWed 3:20 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

  • Outgoing water

    9.4

    Wed 3:20 AMWed 9:20 AM

    Moving water in the right part of the day.

Launch and beach access

Lodge towns and cited marinas. CONAPESCA license. Biosphere and park water is not a freelance wade.

  • Punta Allen / Sian Ka’an

    Sian Ka’an Biosphere / CONAPESCA

    Village launch into Ascension Bay. Biosphere reserve. Lodge and park rules. CONAPESCA license.

    Official source

Legal water

No-take and closed water cited to the agency that owns it. Only the Keys box is FKNMS.

No FKNMS polygon in this box. Mainland Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mexico, and the Bahamas are not Keys sanctuary closures.

Why — and who

  • Tide is low slack (modeled — no NOAA gauge on this water).
  • Waxing gibbous moon — mid tide range. Sight water often prefers a moderate range and clean water over a huge spring.

Striped marlin

Kajikia audax

7.3

Thermal window

66°88°

Pacific / Sea of Cortez. Baja, not the Gulf. In peak season for this water.

Mexico: East Cape and the mouth of the Cortez. Typically catch-and-release. Verify CONAPESCA. Not an Atlantic white.

Roosterfish

Nematistius pectoralis

7.3

Thermal window

68°92°

Pacific / Sea of Cortez. Baja, not the Gulf. In peak season for this water.

Mexico: verify CONAPESCA. East Cape and La Paz programs are typically catch-and-release.

Mahi-mahi

Coryphaena hippurus

7.3

Thermal window

66°92°

Bluewater. Weedlines, humps, and the edge — this is the method. In peak season for this water.

Florida: typically 10/person, 60/vessel, 20 in fork. Texas: 3/day in federal waters under HMS/coastal rules — verify NOAA HMS and TPWD. Mexico: verify CONAPESCA. Bahamas: check current bag.

Tuna (blackfin / yellowfin)

Thunnus atlanticus / Thunnus albacares

7.3

Thermal window

66°92°

Bluewater. Weedlines, humps, and the edge — this is the method. In peak season for this water.

Federal HMS rules. Yellowfin typically 27 in curved fork. Blackfin often more liberal — verify NOAA HMS and FWC/TPWD the morning you leave the inlet.

Blue marlin

Makaira nigricans

7.3

Thermal window

68°90°

Bluewater. Weedlines, humps, and the edge — this is the method. In peak season for this water.

Mexico: Pacific or Yucatan blue water. Verify CONAPESCA. Not a lagoon.

Swordfish

Xiphias gladius

5.5

Thermal window

60°84°

Bluewater. Weedlines, humps, and the edge — this is the method. Present, not peak.

Mexico: verify CONAPESCA.

Sailfish

Istiophorus platypterus

3.7

Thermal window

66°90°

Bluewater. Weedlines, humps, and the edge — this is the method. Off-season here.

Florida: catch-and-release for Atlantic sail except a rare harvest tag. Federal HMS permit in federal waters. Texas/Bahamas: treat as C&R.

Wahoo

Acanthocybium solandri

3.7

Thermal window

66°88°

Bluewater. Weedlines, humps, and the edge — this is the method. Off-season here.

Mexico: verify CONAPESCA.

Jack crevalle

Caranx hippos

5.8

Thermal window

64°94°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.

Incidental. Not why you booked Ascension or East Cape.

Great barracuda

Sphyraena barracuda

5.8

Thermal window

66°92°

Bycatch and beach noise — not the reason you came. In peak season for this water.

Incidental. Ciguatera is a real reason not to keep a big one.

Regs citedCONAPESCA recreational license · current CONAPESCA rules · rolls in 8 days. Sian Ka’an, Contoy, and Espíritu Santo are park or biosphere water. Roosterfish is Baja, not the Gulf.